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Theoretically, with the current population and election rules, what is the greatest possible number of votes that one candidate could have won more than the other and still lost the US presidential election?
Question
#52186. Asked by gmackematix.
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kevinatilusa
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I'm too lazy to actually do the computation right now, but...
Assuming a 2 party election with each state having approximately the same number of voters as in 2000/2004, it seems like the best any candidate can do without reaching 269 electoral votes is to
1. Win California, Texas, Florida, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New York, Massachusetts, and whichever two of Georgia, North Carolina, and New Jersey have the most votes (putting them at 268) with 100% of the vote.
2. Lose all the other states by 1 vote.
So the total would be the sum of the # of votes cast in the states in 1 minus the # of states in 2.
Alternatively, a candidate can receive 100% of the popular vote on election day, but lose 270-268 when half the electoral college changes their mind.
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mluo2010
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New Jersey has the most of those 3, then North Carolina. The total for the 100% states is 66,312,939, someone else can calculate the other states. However, states with fewer electoral votes but more voters have more weight so we'd probably need a statistician to make the calculations. For instance, Florida had 7,609,810 voters but only 27 electoral votes; Texas had fewer votes, 7,398,408 voters with 34 electoral votes. PA also had better turnout than Illinois but 1 less electoral vote, many states beat California also in turnout percentage.
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