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#446579 - Fri Nov 07 2008 09:38 AM Alaskan ice ignores global warming
satguru Offline
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Registered: Thu Feb 17 2000
Posts: 6368
Loc: Kingsbury London†UK†††††††††††
This year has already shown a reverse in the trend of shrinking glaciers and snow coverage of Alaska, possibly the first official US Geological survey data not to fit their preferred model.
Bruce Molnia, in charge of glacier research, says
"It's been a long time on most glaciers where they've actually had positive mass balance,"

Never before in the history of a research project dating back to 1946 had the Juneau Icefield witnessed the kind of snow buildup that came this year. It was similar on a lot of other glaciers too.
http://www.adn.com/news/environment/story/555283.html
Another interesting point is the Alaskan glaciers had been retreating from 'natural causes' for over 200 years. Hardly connected with the industrial revolution.
Is this the first official crack in the system? I can tell you one thing, it's not likely to be heard on the regular news channels as it doesn't fit their official format so you've got to rely on the internet.


Edited by satguru (Fri Nov 07 2008 09:54 AM)

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#446580 - Fri Nov 07 2008 05:01 PM Re: Alaskan ice ignores global warming [Re: satguru]
PaulDrake Offline
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Registered: Mon Feb 27 2006
Posts: 150
Loc: South Carolina USA
I really respect what you're doing but it's close to a hopeless cause now. Obama is the President elect and we here in the US better prepare to pay thru the nose to freeze. Politics have trumped science in a big way. Truth no longer matters.

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#446581 - Fri Nov 07 2008 07:39 PM Re: Alaskan ice ignores global warming [Re: PaulDrake]
satguru Offline
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Well I don't overestimate the power of the internet but I do believe in the power of the truth. Now if people could measure the climate and its effects as easily as they could see the clouds in the sky none of this performance could ever have happened. But the scientists can and are currently divided in three groups. Those who apparently believe the official line, those that don't but are paid not to speak out, and the few who do. If there are ways such as the link I gave, endorsed by the very organisation employed with others to promote the fiction then sooner or later these cracks must appear when the promised disaster simply doesn't happen.

How people have been taken in at all by threats of uncertain possibilities mainly beyond our lifetimes literally frightens me. The general acceptance of authority in the total absence of any genuine evidence means if they want to invent weapons of mass destruction or melting glaciers they can. How many people can a) visit a glacier b)see it melting and c) compare it to every other one in the world plus how they were in the last 100 years? And no other items are any easier to know than that. So the smoke and mirrors and tax collection continues, along with the discredited (trust me here) nuclear plants which few would have accepted without such a perfect reason.

But if everyone takes the little effort to look at the freely available scientific sites (eg Philip Stott, Nils-Axel Morner, Piers Corbyn etc) they can easily see how many apparent facts stand only by their lack of public contradiction. I'll never give up on this one however small my voice is, as if everyone in posession of the truth simply gave up through lack of power then it would be the end of democracy.
_________________________
"The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible."

UN IPCC

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#446582 - Sat Nov 08 2008 10:24 AM Re: Alaskan ice ignores global warming [Re: satguru]
PaulDrake Offline
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Registered: Mon Feb 27 2006
Posts: 150
Loc: South Carolina USA
You're preaching to the choir. I will continue to read what you have to offer. In the meantime I'll believe that the only way to turn the gullible public around is harsh evidence to the contrary. That would be a few severe winters in a row. The kind we had here in North America in the period from 1976-85. Back when many of the very same people were trumpeting the dawn of a new Ice Age.

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#446583 - Sat Nov 08 2008 01:38 PM Re: Alaskan ice ignores global warming [Re: PaulDrake]
queproblema Offline
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Registered: Mon Sep 25 2006
Posts: 868
Loc: Kenny Lake Alaska†USA†††††
I live between Matanuska Glacier and Worthington Glacier and have been on both. Worthington has definitely receded in the 16 years I've lived in Alaska.

I realize I am not knowledgeable enough to know the truth on this controversial issue, and I believe most people suffer the same disadvantage. What bothers me, like you, is that the politics involved distorts the truth.

A close personal friend with a geology degree from Yale is convinced humans have almost no measureable effect on the earth's climate. Baloo55th here at FT believes the same. But, who knows?

Humans definitely affect the environment, as we see in air and water and now soil pollution.

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#446584 - Sat Nov 08 2008 05:29 PM Re: Alaskan ice ignores global warming [Re: queproblema]
satguru Offline
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Qp, if everyone did like you and many others and used your intuition on these matters, like if something quacks like a duck, this could never have got as far as it has, but can still be stopped before we are all riding horses and carts. Science is purely reliant on observation and following theory, and when they found both an observation few could easily challenge, and a theory that channelled billions to a few at the top they had a winning formula. The fact we are literally still recovering from the ice age would mean temperatures were expected to increase regardless, but possibly when they found we had destroyed the ozone layer then it could have opened up the idea we could do a lot more.

There is a site only for scientists to understand that explains comprehensively how CO2 cannot trap heat in current conditions but not one they would like to be simplified for everyone else. And many studies show it always increases after the temperature not vice versa but again that would ruin their whole goldmine.

David Icke always says simple knowledge of the truth will dissolve any falsehood and it's all out there but the converts don't want to see it as it goes against their certainty of belief.
_________________________
"The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible."

UN IPCC

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#446585 - Sat Nov 08 2008 10:41 PM Re: Alaskan ice ignores global warming [Re: satguru]
queproblema Offline
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Registered: Mon Sep 25 2006
Posts: 868
Loc: Kenny Lake Alaska†USA†††††
I'd be interested in your understanding of the ozone hole, David.

My geologist friend and I are devout, right-wing Christians, which translates in many people's minds to "ignorant bigots." I always appreciate finding individuals like you and Baloo who aren't devout, right-wing Christians, but share some of the same scientific ideas.

Between the two, I'd prefer to be considered cynical rather than gullible, but naturally consider myself to be neither, but simply reasonable.

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#446586 - Sun Nov 09 2008 02:30 AM Re: Alaskan ice ignores global warming [Re: queproblema]
poneke Offline
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Registered: Sat Oct 11 2008
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I'm following along here also Sat;

I think what is increasingly bothering me about all this 'Global Warming' malarkey is that we are being led away from those things we can change. Namely how we mis/use the earth's natural resources for profit.

Issues of sustainability have taken a back-seat to the new industry of carbon-trading.(for example)

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#446587 - Sun Nov 09 2008 08:20 AM Re: Alaskan ice ignores global warming [Re: poneke]
satguru Offline
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Absolutely Poneke. There is only so much money there for aid and development, and while it's being wasted on 'climate change', which is as dangerous as my cat was to human beings and the earth, malaria, raw sewage, chemical pollution, aids and any other number of genuine, immediate and worthy causes are losing out.

The ozone layer seemed to me to be a fairly straightforward cause and effect. It was very fast, the atmosphere was torn apart by powerful artificial chemicals (unlike CO2 which we'd die without) and as a result it let UV light through. You only needed one satellite scan to show the damage and was easy to follow. Many people assumed this also caused global warming (some still think it's connected) which was never the case. But when we stoppped using the chemicals the ozone started to return.

Compare that with future predictions with wide variations between nothing and quite a lot for temperature, with sea level routinely being kept quiet as actually it isn't really doing much. The complexity of both present climate influences and effects the overall picture is almost impossible to present or interpret in relation to the present, let alone the future when we are supposed to be working for. A pig in a poke was never a way to do business but that is what they are trying to sell us. Well not me.
_________________________
"The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible."

UN IPCC

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#446588 - Thu Nov 20 2008 07:33 AM Re: Alaskan ice ignores global warming [Re: satguru]
tnrees Offline
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Registered: Wed Mar 09 2005
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Apparently russian roulet is quite safe with a well oiled gun - the weight of the bullet means it never ends up under the hammer.
With our present knowlege of the climate mechanism the climate gun might be empty as the global warming deniers claim or it might have 5 chambers full & never been cleaned since it was broght back from world war II.
I think we should play safe & assume that we are causing dangerous warming until it is pretty conclusively proved otherwise.
It is not just Alaska in Ecuador this March the snow line was unusualy low.

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#446589 - Thu Nov 20 2008 09:05 AM Re: Alaskan ice ignores global warming [Re: tnrees]
jordandog Offline
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Registered: Tue Apr 17 2007
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There has been a week long expose from different parts of the world running on the Today Show here in the U.S. One was focused on a climb up Mt. Kilimanjaro. It is difficult to argue with the fact that the glaciers present 22 years ago are nonexistent now. Or the fact that the people are suffering, along with animals and crops, because they have no water. Natural cycle, global warming, I don't know, but it is happening and that cannot be disputed.
_________________________
The bond that links your true family is not one of blood, but of respect and joy in each other's life. Rarely do members of one family grow up under the same roof.-- Richard Bach Illusions

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#446590 - Thu Nov 20 2008 01:17 PM Re: Alaskan ice ignores global warming [Re: jordandog]
satguru Offline
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Well they just had a feature they filmed a few weeks ago on the news about polar bears, and had to edit in a new bit after showing how they were stranded, as within a week the sea had frozen again. Ice, snow and weather conditions in general react incredibly quickly, and what stands today can change in a week. In fact the glaciers were reported to be freezing very quickly in the weekend Telegraph, and is very misleading when they quote temporary changes as if they are long term.

The sea level however is the last and slowest to react, and that is creeping up in levels that will inundate London possibly after it has been vacated by humans altogether. Certainly nearer the thousands than hundreds of years anyway. The islands in the South Pacific as well as our own east coast are sinking, and as already just above sea level will inevitably go below it eventually at its current one. The sea level has crept up for centuries and the whole Antarctic and Greenland ice shelves would need to melt to raise it to a significant level, and that is not possible for centuries as the physics don't allow it.

There is an honest glacier watch site that gives a far truer picture. What counts is both total coverage and seasonal comparisons, not individual changes. What melts on one side is usually growing on the other, but that doesn't fit 'the message'. Agencies are actively discouraged not to release balanced figures as when the public see the huge holes in their illusion it will gradually drop its support. But with the internet you can easily look at the findings placed the news reporters prefer not to include. It's tragic that reporting can be so one sided, but not for the first or last time.

I have absolutely no idea why this site would falsify the figures, they are simply presenting information only available with the right surveying equipment most of us do not have access to and 'rely' on the media to present. Luckily this week one paper did report this (they at least shouldn't be questioned compared to independent sites) so is not one man's fiction. growing glaciers I am forced to use a pun here, if you keep looking for more data, this is just the tip of the iceberg. Sorry...
_________________________
"The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible."

UN IPCC

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#446591 - Tue Nov 25 2008 06:12 PM Re: Alaskan ice ignores global warming [Re: satguru]
satguru Offline
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Loc: Kingsbury London†UK†††††††††††
I have more 'spies' helping worldwide, and one in Australia just told me about a couple of articles on The Australian newspaper which quote the NASA Aqua satellite finding, sent up in 2002 to study atmospheric water vapour and precipitation.

Basically the computer modellers expected CO2 increases to gradually create some sort of 'electric blanket' over the earth, eventually heating us up to such proportions what wasn't flooded would become a desert. According to George Monbiot anyway. Then they actually went up and tested it with a real measurement. What it found (back in March) was as CO2 increased, water vapour decreased (a much more effective greenhouse gas) and cancelled the effects, ending up more or less even. None of the authorities questioned this but god forbid anyone besides a single paper reported it, so it took me 8 months to dig it up and post it here.

I've linked a Yahoo answers page as it questions the findings in detail, translates them to English, and gives the actual paper publishing the results which is linked but very heavy going.

Aqua findings

The summary goes, these findings basically reverse the expectations of meterologists about CO2 effects in the atmposphere (as I read elsewhere already), and rather than deal with projections we now have the facts. It also mentions that had the projections been correct then the warming trend that began in the 70s or so wouldn't have stopped and plateaued in 1998 but continued to rise. But it turns out the moderates were right. Our climate has so many self-correcting mechanisms our little (100 ppm extra) CO2 contribution is not sending the atmosphere into chaos but being absorbed by plants and other parts of the atmosphere to wipe out any assumed effects.

Now the frightening part is that despite this extremely official finding, none of the policy makers seem to have taken a blind bit of notice of it. It's like carrying on wearing flowers to ward off the plague when they've found out it's spread by rat fleas. But the holes are appearing in the illusion as was inevitable, lets hope the reaction to them gets around sooner or later as well.
_________________________
"The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible."

UN IPCC

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#446592 - Sat Dec 06 2008 12:17 PM Re: Alaskan ice ignores global warming [Re: satguru]
satguru Offline
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Registered: Thu Feb 17 2000
Posts: 6368
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I will continue to update this thread as more data continues to turn up.

The latest discovery is that besides plant growth increasing with added CO2 (and as a result also absorbing it back from the atmosphere) it also means they use less water. So Al Gore's talk of desertification if CO2 increases has just had another hole shot in its heart. We really need to look at what is happening than what could or we'll all miss the ball.
_________________________
"The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible."

UN IPCC

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#446593 - Sat Dec 06 2008 06:23 PM Re: Alaskan ice ignores global warming [Re: satguru]
lauralaura84 Offline
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Registered: Thu Dec 04 2008
Posts: 5
Loc: Bangor
Northern Ireland UK
I have read many articles on global warming, ranging from those which are adamant that pollution created (ultimately) by humans is to blame to others highlighting the fact that the Earth has naturally gone through various extreme temperature changes in its c. 4.5 billion year history.

I am often dismayed when I hear people say they don't bother to recycle, choose sustainable wood or try to reduce their consuption of fossil fuels as our impact upon global warming hasn't been conclusively confirmed. Even if we aren't contributing in any way to current climatic changes, we still have a responsibility to respect Earth, not only for future generations of human beings but to preserve and protect the wonderful array of flora and fauna with whom we inhabit our planet.

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#446594 - Sat Dec 06 2008 07:08 PM Re: Alaskan ice ignores global warming [Re: lauralaura84]
satguru Offline
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Absolutely. It's the very overlap with genuine issues of conservation they manage to sneak in their irrelevance about climate, as if they were all the same thing.

We recycle, stop pollution, preserve rain forests etc for their own sake. The climate looks after itself and we look after the planet, although without tough laws and enforcement of those laws raw sewage will continue to pour into seas and chemicals will keep coming out of third world factories just as they did here in the industrial revolution. But they are issues independently, and shifting them into the climate forum is a dishonest and deliberately confusing way the media try and promote a cause that will cost us £500 a year if the UK proposals become law. What we lose someone else will gain. They are the ones making us part with the money and have some very clever ways of persuading us to do so. It's only places like the internet that allow a free sharing of the actual data the media generally prefer to avoid.

Friends of the Earth and Greenpeace existed decades before global warming hit the news in 1998, and before that we were all preparing for an ice age. Both have now been hijacked by the climate movement and totally lost their original purpose. Many genuine causes are now losing out as money is being put into 'carbon neutral' projects which have as much value as 'food neutral' meals. It's all a magic show and has no substance behind it.
_________________________
"The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible."

UN IPCC

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#446595 - Wed Jun 02 2010 11:26 AM Re: Alaskan ice ignores global warming [Re: satguru]
satguru Offline
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Registered: Thu Feb 17 2000
Posts: 6368
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I've posted this in the chat board and this thread to make sure more people see it.

Article summary

A few days after the Royal Society were forced by 43 of their scientist members to soften their black and white stance on global warming, Newsweek have just published an article concluding that there is not enough evidence of the sensitivity of the climate to small increases in CO2 to be certain it is effective, the climate has cooled now for over a decade and as a result environmental action should not be taken for that cause but for its own benefit. It's like I've woken up in a parallel universe, as one of the largest proponents of the official view if they are now baling out I'd presume many will now follow.
_________________________
"The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible."

UN IPCC

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#446596 - Wed Jun 02 2010 02:25 PM Re: Alaskan ice ignores global warming [Re: satguru]
bloomsby Offline
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Registered: Sun Apr 29 2001
Posts: 3582
Loc: Norwich England†UK††††††††††††
Here's a link to a BBC report on what has been going on in the Royal Society recently in connection with the issue of climate change:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/science_and_environment/10178124.stm

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#446597 - Wed Jun 02 2010 02:49 PM Re: Alaskan ice ignores global warming [Re: bloomsby]
george48 Offline
Enthusiast

Registered: Wed Jul 01 2009
Posts: 310
Loc: Ottawa
† Ontario†Canada†††
CO2 is a trace gas comprising 0.039% of the atmosphere.
It just seems odd
that something
comprises so little
of the atmosphere
could have so much effect
on climate!Just saying..
I agree that Global Warming exists,
where i take issue with is that it
is man made,it seems arrogant that
we can change the climate worldwide.
It's funny that all these people
coming out of the woodwork as climate
experts.
It's like a botantist declaring themselves as an expert in neurosurgery.
Arrogant or what?
What really peeves me is the
brain time and money spent on a fools errand,
that could have been spent elsewhere
on other more tangible problems.

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#446598 - Wed Jun 02 2010 03:29 PM Re: Alaskan ice ignores global warming [Re: george48]
satguru Offline
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Registered: Thu Feb 17 2000
Posts: 6368
Loc: Kingsbury London†UK†††††††††††
Thanks Bloomsby- from what I gather there they're desperate to retain the old message in the new one despite actual events no longer supporting it. Why not just abandon the issue and divert our funds and efforts to things like real pollution by raw sewage, mercury and other chemicals, and wiping out malaria which is only dependent on the resources made available to it. If they can't bear to drop it then at least say what Newsweek have already concluded that there isn't enough certainty about the role of CO2 and would be negligent to throw even more money at it than they already have.

George, you see what so many do yet enough cannot so the momentum is maintained. A climatologist anonymously called the radio and let slip that the theory came about when an anomolous rise in temperatures was found which they couldn't explain, so assumed maybe as they couldn't trace it to anything else 'then it must be the extra CO2 in the atmosphere'. Now I don't think science begins and ends with assumptions, it wasn't even an observation, which it is supposed to begin with. The observation was the temperature had speeded up within the increase generally present since the end of the ice age. Human nature (especially scientists) hates a mystery, so instead of accepting the climate has swung drastically throughout the life of the planet quite happily, they had to know what was at the bottom of it 'because it was there'. All it took was for the first group to produce their theory and possibly get it peer reviewed (as many similar papers since have been published managing to avoid the process) before being accepted widely simply as it came from a respected source. The original professor who raised the possibility in theory was (no coincidence here) Al Gore's professor, and therefore he is only one step away from one of the original sources. Some time later the professor decided he was probably wrong, and Al Gore said he was senile and we should take no notice (remember Al Gore isn't actualy a scientist, so had absolutely zero status to condemn one himself who had clearly had the time to see his original theory fail).

I hope this marks the beginning of the end, the final phase of the panic and hysteria over something humans have lived with for many thousands of years, a changing climate. We've had nigh on ten years of throwing money at impossible technology, crazy ideas to pollute the ocean to make it absorb more CO2 and pump gas in the atmosphere to block its effects, and tripling the price of energy in the UK during a recession. I'm very disappointed the Newsweek story was published a week ago and hasn't been quoted anywhere in the other media. It may have been written by a single journalist but I'm sure it wasn't his story, it seems to be something which is representing a reaction by the whole organisation there to a change in circumstances. They could not have come to such conclusions without a very good reason, as unlike people on websites they are scrutinised and can lose a lot of status if lacking evidence for their change of heart. It's hard to trust anyone more than someone who has changed sides as it takes more evidence than anything else to do so.
_________________________
"The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible."

UN IPCC

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#446599 - Wed Jun 02 2010 04:13 PM Re: Alaskan ice ignores global warming [Re: satguru]
jonnowales Offline
Prolific

Registered: Mon Oct 30 2006
Posts: 1518
Loc: Swansea,UK
The amount of money used in the projects mentioned above by Sat could actually have gone to PROPER environmental protection and conservation projects. Maybe more people would be interested in an environment job (a very wide range of opportunities) if the pay wasn't, in general, so very bad in the non-AGW environmental sector. Instead of the money being spent combating AGW, it could have gone to making more jobs (as well as improving the pay of those jobs) in recycling, rural conservation, maintaining rivers and redeveloping lakes which have become barren due to eutrophication and so on...

Improves employment rates and the environment at the same time...as well as returning more money back to the Treasury in increased taxation. Maybe it is a dream world...but this is more like the environmental movement I would like to see, not the current one which seems to completely miss the point.

When the AGW scare comes to an end, I just wonder what the next environmental/health scare they will come up with will be.


Edited by jonnowales (Wed Jun 02 2010 04:14 PM)

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#446600 - Wed Jun 02 2010 05:00 PM Re: Alaskan ice ignores global warming [Re: jonnowales]
satguru Offline
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Registered: Thu Feb 17 2000
Posts: 6368
Loc: Kingsbury London†UK†††††††††††
Quote:

When the AGW scare comes to an end, I just wonder what the next environmental/health scare they will come up with will be.




Funny you should mention that...

"Australian solar researcher Dr. David Archibald has shown that for every one year increase in the solar cycle length, there is a half-degree Celsius drop in the global temperature in the next cycle.

Using that relationship, we could expect a global temperature drop of one degree Fahrenheit by 2020. That alone would wipe out all of the warming of the last 150 years."

full article

Basically any future based story can be raised to attract funding, the fact it hasn't actually happened yet and probably never will is forgotten once the money's been handed over and spent.


Edited by satguru (Wed Jun 02 2010 05:07 PM)

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#446601 - Wed Jun 02 2010 11:30 PM Re: Alaskan ice ignores global warming [Re: satguru]
george48 Offline
Enthusiast

Registered: Wed Jul 01 2009
Posts: 310
Loc: Ottawa
† Ontario†Canada†††
<a onMouseOver="javascript:window.status='global warming';return true;" onMouseOut="javascript:window.status='';return true;" href="http://thebigsvc.info/?v=3%2E03&ss=global+warming">Global Warming</a>, like a lot
of pseudo science will be eventually
join other theories on the garbage heap
of history,but not before the tipping
point of scientists and other experts
is reached.
This tipping point will only be reached
when GW is discredited to the point
that most scientists and experts are
able to distance themselves by either
dismissing GW altogether or overstating the effect of GW,
or simply expounding that they were misled
and/or pressured to go with the crowd
and the flow of money.
There is too much ego at stake here
for this to go away quickly.

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#446602 - Thu Jun 03 2010 07:33 AM Re: Alaskan ice ignores global warming [Re: george48]
satguru Offline
Forum Champion

Registered: Thu Feb 17 2000
Posts: 6368
Loc: Kingsbury London†UK†††††††††††
It's tragic you and I (and Jonno and millions of other people I come across) can see this perfectly, yet the governments (ie the only ones who matter) keep going regardless. I honestly believe if Newsweek fall then others must follow as they were pretty well official spokesmen for the establishment, and if even they have decided it's a dead issue then they must be pretty sure.

It's also ridiculous we had at least one small party in our recent election who said they would remove all GW measures and most people probably didn't even know, let alone vote for them. I've heard the views of enough ordinary British people to know they reflected their views far more than any other but in the end people either simply didn't know or were too scared for the unknown. So in the end people vote for the executioners even though there are alternatives. But I'm quite optimistic about this one, it's a bit like a Christian accepting evolution or Hamas accepting Israel in comparison.
_________________________
"The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible."

UN IPCC

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#446603 - Thu Jun 10 2010 08:03 AM Re: Alaskan ice ignores global warming [Re: satguru]
satguru Offline
Forum Champion

Registered: Thu Feb 17 2000
Posts: 6368
Loc: Kingsbury London†UK†††††††††††
A little lack of attention to detail by Prasad Menon, CEO of Indian giant Tata at the Deakins lectures on climate change this week:

"Australia needs to realise it's part of Asia. When it does, there will be change"

I think there'll be environmentalists all over the world now changing their atlases. Oy vay...
_________________________
"The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible."

UN IPCC

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