#690700 - Thu Feb 16 2012 06:52 AM
Re: Crystal Ball - Let's sort this out!
[Re: bubbatom1]
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Mainstay
Registered: Sat Jun 10 2006
Posts: 980
Loc: Merseyside UK
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Like you, I hope that the thread can stay on topic this time and not get hi-jacked.
I must be perilously close to being on your list of 'professionals' with over 150 wins, but I can assure you that the only list of words I have available is just as accessible to you. It's called a dictionary (the Oxford Concise Dictionary, if you're interested).
My chances of winning an hourly game are no higher than yours, though, and I don't understand what it is that you want sorted out. The more guesses that are made, the more words there are eliminated which narrows the remaining options. Taking out players after they've won a certain number of times may even reduce your chances of winning rather than increase them. I have only played regularly for about 13 months, and assume that the leading players have been taking part much longer to amass their wins.
The last ten winners consist of nine different names, with only one person winning twice (not the person with most wins as it happens). Two of the winning words I would never have guessed - trazodone and aciculate, neither of which appears in my dictionary, and no-one guessed one of these. I wouldn't have guessed pediatrician either, because that's not how I would spell it. It's really mostly a matter of luck.
I feel your singling out and naming of one particular person is unfair. No matter how many wins you have, it is still a thrill to see those green letters saying 'Correct!!'.
The only suggestion I can make is to play Word Wizard regularly too, if you don't do so already, as it seems that the same dictionary is used in both games.
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#690706 - Thu Feb 16 2012 07:21 AM
Re: Crystal Ball - Let's sort this out!
[Re: bubbatom1]
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Prolific
Registered: Tue Feb 20 2007
Posts: 1610
Loc: Mumbai India
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Some have actually asked "why bother being a gold member?" The Crystal Ball and both the badges associated with it are open to all members. Hence I don't see why any decision on whether to be a Gold Member or not should be taken based on this particular game. I have only four wins. I get limited time for FT and prefer spending it on other stuff that the site has to offer. Others have already pointed out that having more people play helps as more incorrect guesses help in the process of elimination. The people who cheated on this game have already had their accounts banned by Terry. Some players just happen to be good at this game and enjoy playing it. That's no reason for them to be spoken to like that over here or anywhere else for that matter.
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"Don't do something permanently stupid just because you are temporarily upset."
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#690714 - Thu Feb 16 2012 07:44 AM
Re: Crystal Ball - Let's sort this out!
[Re: trev1]
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Multiloquent
Registered: Wed Feb 03 2010
Posts: 4022
Loc: Florida USA
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Some people do a ton (tonne?) of crosswords and have built tharselfs a mighty heap of a vocabularemy. Someday I howp two get me one to.
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"...Tomorrow's come a long way to help you." Tim Davis 'Your Saving Grace' Steve Miller Band (1969) "...Yesterday's at least a mile back." Dale Peters 'Dreaming in the Country' James Gang (1971)
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#690821 - Thu Feb 16 2012 12:46 PM
Re: Crystal Ball - Let's sort this out!
[Re: Iceman61]
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Mainstay
Registered: Tue Aug 11 2009
Posts: 738
Loc: Glasgow Scotland UK
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I used to be frustrated when the same people kept winning over and over. However, it really is just a case of playing yourself. You can use a dictionary list if you want, but I think you'll find that the word can be relatively simple like "tack" - does the player with the dictionary have much of an advantage then? I think not. I hadn't played the Crystal Ball that much recently, but as I'm concentrating on hourlies this month, I've been playing the Crystal Ball whenever I can too, as has my sister. We've both managed to amass about a fifth of our total wins in this month alone, simply because we've been playing often.
Instead of being bitter about this, have a proper think about it and see if you can find a possible explanation as to how someone can be cheating? I recently got three correct words in a row that was a complete fluke and surprised me as much as the next person. Did I cheat? Certainly not. How could I? Obviously players like HurricaneBill play much more often than you do, and with my current trends for the month, it seems I would amass hundreds of words over several months too. I can't believe you'd single him out and accuse him of God knows what just because you can't get a word! Different people have different strategies, such as using their five guesses as soon as possible, while others like me wait until the :55 mark, with the risk that the word will be discovered by then.
The way I've come to look at it is that there are only two important outcomes for the Crystal Ball game as far as I'm concerned: (1) I win. (2) I don't win. In situation (2), whether it's HurricaneBill every time or a different player doesn't matter. I still don't get the win.
Edited by reeshy (Thu Feb 16 2012 12:48 PM)
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Richard
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#690826 - Thu Feb 16 2012 02:45 PM
Re: Crystal Ball - Let's sort this out!
[Re: reeshy]
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Star Poster
Registered: Sun Oct 05 2003
Posts: 17777
Loc: Dallas, TX USA
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The way I've come to look at it is that there are only two important outcomes for the Crystal Ball game as far as I'm concerned: (1) I win. (2) I don't win. In situation (2), whether it's HurricaneBill every time or a different player doesn't matter. I still don't get the win. I couldn't agree more with this. If I could, I'd Facebook "like" it! 
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The way to get things done is NOT to mind who gets the credit for doing them. --Benjamin Jowett No one can make you feel inferior without your consent. --Eleanor Roosevelt The day we lose our will to fight is the day we lose our freedom.
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#690851 - Thu Feb 16 2012 03:41 PM
Re: Crystal Ball - Let's sort this out!
[Re: dg_dave]
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Multiloquent
Registered: Tue Jul 04 2006
Posts: 2935
Loc: Lawrenceville Georgia USA
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I don't have much time to play this game, and I don't have double digit wins, but I still enjoy playing when I can and love seeing that green check mark. When the "Who's the Smartest" is a topic I'm terrible at, I don't play, but I don't begrudge those who are good at it their shot at playing and winning. There is so much available here, play what makes you happy.
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Sue (shuehorn)
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#690991 - Fri Feb 17 2012 05:21 AM
Re: Crystal Ball - Let's sort this out!
[Re: bubbatom1]
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Multiloquent
Registered: Wed Feb 03 2010
Posts: 4022
Loc: Florida USA
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Some go to Peewee's Playhouse and ask Jambi what the word will be but Jambi just says to ask Conkey who always knows the secret word. AHHH SCREAM, Secret is the secret word AHHH. SCREAM. Wasn't Hurricane Bill a character in the Playhouse cast?
Edited by mehaul (Fri Feb 17 2012 05:22 AM)
_________________________
"...Tomorrow's come a long way to help you." Tim Davis 'Your Saving Grace' Steve Miller Band (1969) "...Yesterday's at least a mile back." Dale Peters 'Dreaming in the Country' James Gang (1971)
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#690995 - Fri Feb 17 2012 06:12 AM
Re: Crystal Ball - Let's sort this out!
[Re: mehaul]
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Star Poster
Registered: Sun Oct 05 2003
Posts: 17777
Loc: Dallas, TX USA
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Bubbatom, there is nothing wrong with the game. I'm sorry to say this, but getting mad because you don't win every game isn't going to change it. I've tried to win one, and am at zero; I don't even have the badge. From now until :45, we all have equal chance to win, and we all get one, and only one guess. How is that unfair? After that, we all get five additional chances, provided the word isn't guessed by then.
There are words that don't even get called out. Look at the word in the 10pm hour last night; it was skipped over as no one got it. We all had sixty minutes to get it.
_________________________
The way to get things done is NOT to mind who gets the credit for doing them. --Benjamin Jowett No one can make you feel inferior without your consent. --Eleanor Roosevelt The day we lose our will to fight is the day we lose our freedom.
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#690996 - Fri Feb 17 2012 06:32 AM
Re: Crystal Ball - Let's sort this out!
[Re: dg_dave]
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Administrator
Registered: Thu Sep 04 2008
Posts: 2998
Loc: Germany
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There is a bit of strategy to this game and while I have mostly figured it out, I didn't really find the motivation to apply it consistently as it requires building your daily time schedule around the game which I don't like.
To the strategy: You cannot guarantee a win in Crystal Ball, but you can optimize your chances. In the first 45 minutes, you don't have many options - you get one guess. All you can do is not use the first word that comes to mind but try to think of a more obscure one in the hopes of being the only one to use the word, so when you DO have the right one, you win outright instead of having a 1 in 3, 1 in 5 or worse chance.
After the first 45, it gets more interesting - you get additional information bit by bit which narrows down your guessing space, thus decreasing the denominator of your "5 in X" chance and making a correct guess more likely. However, on the other hand, other players will guess and chances are they'll get it first. So once you realize this, you'll want to strike when the probability to guess right starts is higher than that of the game making it to the next info bit (there is never an advantage from waiting within one level - you either guess or wait for the next one).
For that strategy, you'll of course need to know or estimate just how many possible words are left for the known clues and guess list given and you need to be able to come up with five fitting words. Some players may do these two tasks with a dictionary or word list, others from their head. It's just like with googling - it's not what we want to happen but since we can't prove it, we can't forbid it.
With perfect timing and strategy, you can probably pull a lot of wins unless others in the field use the same tactics. I've personally decided that, after a few experiments and having the luck of blowing 50%+ chances, I'd not burden down my day with up to 14 minute "reload, reload" sessons and planning. I finally won the game once on a bunch of random guesses made just after the 15 minute mark, without any strategy and since then only occasionally send in a handful of random, non-strategic tries.
Edited by WesleyCrusher (Fri Feb 17 2012 06:39 AM)
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FT Editor and Administrator Guardian of the Tower
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#690997 - Fri Feb 17 2012 06:34 AM
Re: Crystal Ball - Let's sort this out!
[Re: dg_dave]
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Enthusiast
Registered: Wed Feb 17 2010
Posts: 267
Loc: Nottinghamshire England UK
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I suppose I'm what would be classed an 'average' overall player, not brilliant, but not bad. Some games I'm better at than others, but on the whole, when looking at all the hourly and daily games, the number of times I've actually won can be counted on the fingers of an average mitten. In Word Wizard, for instance where I am actually better than average, a certain Mr dsimpy wins on a more than regular basis (god alone knows how many times he's won, but its LOTS). Am I jealous? Well, yes, I am a bit; but I respect his ability and wouldn't for a moment expect him not to play because he's won too many times. As regards the Crystal ball, I've won 41 times, so in actual fact, when related to all the other games, it's the easiest of the lot! So just because one or more players have won it loads more times isn't an issue. Perhaps if I really wanted to do better, I'd use a list or dictionary, the option is always there to apply yourself to increase your chances of winning, which others have obviously done, and good luck to them I say.
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#690999 - Fri Feb 17 2012 06:46 AM
Re: Crystal Ball - Let's sort this out!
[Re: Iceman61]
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Enthusiast
Registered: Wed Feb 17 2010
Posts: 267
Loc: Nottinghamshire England UK
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(It was on special offer)
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#691002 - Fri Feb 17 2012 07:17 AM
Re: Crystal Ball - Let's sort this out!
[Re: surdoux]
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Enthusiast
Registered: Fri Jun 26 2009
Posts: 234
Loc: Perth Scotland UK
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From the :00 mark, we all have the same chance. Strategy is important, yes; it's better, in my experience, to keep the five bonus guesses until the :55 mark, where we are ALL given the third letter to the word. But strategy does not always work. The same goes with dictionary vs. no dictionary - you have to consider the fact that some people's vocabulary is simply more vast than others. And vast vocabulary aside, often the word is a simple one.
It's the luck of the draw, and the nature of the game has never implied that every player would sit in the rankings in a uniform fashion, all of us with more or less an equal number of wins. I've won 13 words in the month of February alone - this is a large proportion of my wins as a whole (52, I think it is). There's no 'skill' involved, per se - I just got lucky this month. There really is no way to cheat on this game, notwithstanding having multiple accounts (and that player was dealt with a while ago now). It's a case of 'whoever wins the word gets lucky', and no one said it would be easy even to win one word. I know I spent a long time guessing before I won even once.
What exactly needs to be "done" with the game? Do you propose some solution? Banning high-ranking players from guessing? I'm at a loss here trying to imagine what exactly you mean by "something needs to be done". Sometimes some players are better (and in this case, 'better' refers not to skill, but luck) at certain games than others: c'est la vie.
Edited by AlexxSchneider (Fri Feb 17 2012 07:19 AM)
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Alexxandra
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#691020 - Fri Feb 17 2012 10:18 AM
Re: Crystal Ball - Let's sort this out!
[Re: Iceman61]
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Participant
Registered: Sun Jun 28 2009
Posts: 35
Loc: Manchester England UK
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Thanks Iceman61 Now can understand why those players keep on playing it then, dont have problem with them getting the points and fair play to them if they do. One way could be to cap the points at a certain level say 100,250, 500 or a 1000 wins (Like the buzzy bee is capped at 10 wins going of the top of my head) so you still get the win but not the points. Like i said i dont have a problem with the people play this game or how many wins they have, i'm just chuffed with me single win and preparing to streak round the garden if i every manage the 25 wins. Can hear the sighs of relief from my neighbours that Terry set the bar that high so they dont have to see that sight 
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#691078 - Fri Feb 17 2012 01:03 PM
Re: Crystal Ball - Let's sort this out!
[Re: baldricksmum]
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Mainstay
Registered: Tue Aug 11 2009
Posts: 738
Loc: Glasgow Scotland UK
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I'm with others here: what exactly would you like to see "done about it", Lesley (bubbatom1)?
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Richard
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