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#961428 - Wed Jan 16 2013 03:28 PM Re: Zero challenge [Re: mdurnanj]
eyhung Offline
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Registered: Fri Mar 02 2012
Posts: 115
Loc: California USA
For comparing Epic challenge luck, the number of completed challenges is not as relevant as number of challenges bought. I have completed 371 challenges for 729 credits but I've only spent 657 of them on 71 challenges total. (When going for 10-in-a-day, I purchased three challenges expensively at 12, 15, and 18, all the rest have been at the cheapest rate of 9 credits.)

Of the 71 challenges bought, I have obtained and completed 4 epics, so my current rate of Epic acquisition is nearly 1 in 18. But I haven't seen an epic in over 45 straight buys....

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#961445 - Wed Jan 16 2013 05:11 PM Re: Zero challenge [Re: mdurnanj]
mehaul Offline
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Registered: Wed Feb 03 2010
Posts: 6368
Loc: Florida USA
The statistical calculation for the Zero Badge isn't that straightforward either. When taking the Obscurity quiz, you should read the questions and in a few cases you will know the answer and can avoid selecting a correct answer toward the bottom line. In other cases a glance at the possible answers will show a definite wrong answer (example: What can dogs hear that humans can't? an answer of green is obviously wrong.) Those two strategies will help win the badge in far fewer that 170 tries.
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#961453 - Wed Jan 16 2013 05:42 PM Re: Zero challenge [Re: mehaul]
kaddarsgirl Offline
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Registered: Wed Jun 27 2012
Posts: 1780
Loc: Ohio USA
Originally Posted By: mehaul
The statistical calculation for the Zero Badge isn't that straightforward either. When taking the Obscurity quiz, you should read the questions and in a few cases you will know the answer and can avoid selecting a correct answer toward the bottom line. In other cases a glance at the possible answers will show a definite wrong answer (example: What can dogs hear that humans can't? an answer of green is obviously wrong.) Those two strategies will help win the badge in far fewer that 170 tries.


Where did you get the number 170 from? We've already determined that the "average" is 75 tries, and it is extremely likely to not that many, and that's just from blindly guessing on all 15 questions. There's also no need to read the questions. It is quite possible to get 0/15 without reading a single word. Reading just takes up time, and you only get 59 seconds to complete it. Like I said above, I got 0/15 in 16 seconds with just random clicking, no reading.
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#961555 - Thu Jan 17 2013 07:22 AM Re: Zero challenge [Re: mehaul]
mdurnanj Offline
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Registered: Sat Mar 24 2012
Posts: 37
Loc: Florida USA
Originally Posted By: mehaul
The statistical calculation for the Zero Badge isn't that straightforward either. When taking the Obscurity quiz, you should read the questions and in a few cases you will know the answer and can avoid selecting a correct answer toward the bottom line. In other cases a glance at the possible answers will show a definite wrong answer (example: What can dogs hear that humans can't? an answer of green is obviously wrong.)


This is the approach that I followed too, for the reason given: if you can eliminate a few correct answers and guess only on the ones you don't know, then you improve the odds to somewhat better than purely random. (As long as reading questions doesn't take you over the time limit.) Anyway, I did finally get Zero. Rah.

Sadly, now when I get only two correct I won't be able to pretend I was aiming for zero.

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#961566 - Thu Jan 17 2013 08:00 AM Re: Zero challenge [Re: kaddarsgirl]
dippo Offline
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Registered: Sat Jun 14 2008
Posts: 715
Loc: London
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Originally Posted By: kaddarsgirl
We've already determined that the "average" is 75 tries, and it is extremely likely to not that many, and that's just from blindly guessing on all 15 questions.


I think that if you are going to make the statement that the average is 75 tries, you can't logically say that it is "extremely likely" not to be that many - otherwise the average would be lower.

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#961567 - Thu Jan 17 2013 08:11 AM Re: Zero challenge [Re: mdurnanj]
WesleyCrusher Offline

Administrator

Registered: Thu Sep 04 2008
Posts: 4538
Loc: Germany
Actually, due to the distribution, 50.33% of players would get a "blind guess" Zero by the 52nd try. 63.54% will manage in 75 tries or less.

(Of course on the other hand, this also means that 1% of players would still NOT have it even after 342 tries!)

Skill, however, is rewarded: Out of players who can consistently (with 100% accuracy) pick three wrong answers and thus need to guess only 12, 50% will manage by the 22nd try and 99% by the 144th - less than half the number of plays!

If you can even pick five answers certain to be wrong without guessing, the numbers are 12 plays for 50% and 80 plays for 99%.


Edited by WesleyCrusher (Thu Jan 17 2013 08:16 AM)
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#961585 - Thu Jan 17 2013 10:22 AM Re: Zero challenge [Re: mdurnanj]
dippo Offline
Mainstay

Registered: Sat Jun 14 2008
Posts: 715
Loc: London
England UK         
Using this logic, I'm going to recruit an infinite number of monkeys with typewriters, and make my fortune when one of the ultimately produces a complete Shakespearian play.

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#961597 - Thu Jan 17 2013 11:15 AM Re: Zero challenge [Re: dippo]
mdurnanj Offline
Participant

Registered: Sat Mar 24 2012
Posts: 37
Loc: Florida USA
Originally Posted By: dippo
Originally Posted By: kaddarsgirl
We've already determined that the "average" is 75 tries, and it is extremely likely to not that many, and that's just from blindly guessing on all 15 questions.


I think that if you are going to make the statement that the average is 75 tries, you can't logically say that it is "extremely likely" not to be that many - otherwise the average would be lower.


Probability is a lot of fun, and in this case not too hard to calculate. (This is a phrase that should strike fear into the heart of anyone who says it, because it means the chance of an error in what follows goes up tremendously!)

The probability of getting all 15 questions wrong in 75 or fewer tries by guessing randomly is 64% (rounding to nearest integer). A few other exemplars:

Probability of winning in:
10 or fewer tries = 13%
20 or fewer tries = 24%
30 or fewer tries = 33%
40 or fewer tries = 42%
50 or fewer tries = 49%

On the other hand, the probability of not winning after 100 tries is 26%; and not having won after even 200 tries is still 7%. Egads.

(Edit: I failed to notice WesleyCrusher's fine response before I played with a spreadsheet. His explanation shows in addition that adding modest knowledge quickly reduces your expected necessary number of plays.)


Edited by mdurnanj (Thu Jan 17 2013 05:36 PM)

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#961598 - Thu Jan 17 2013 11:18 AM Re: Zero challenge [Re: mdurnanj]
salami_swami Offline
Forum Champion

Registered: Thu Nov 01 2007
Posts: 8760
Loc: Colorado USA
Whoosh.

Hear that? That's the sound of probabilities going above my head.
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#961601 - Thu Jan 17 2013 11:24 AM Re: Zero challenge [Re: dippo]
WesleyCrusher Offline

Administrator

Registered: Thu Sep 04 2008
Posts: 4538
Loc: Germany
Originally Posted By: dippo
Using this logic, I'm going to recruit an infinite number of monkeys with typewriters, and make my fortune when one of the ultimately produces a complete Shakespearian play.


You'd not make but lose a fortune. Your infinite monkeys would, within the time required to type out one work, reproduce every copyrighted written work in the world. (Your number of monkeys is infinite and the number of possible book-length letter combinations is, while huge, finite).

This of course would in turn mean you'd soon get a visit by nearly infinite lawyers demanding nearly infinite sums from you smile


Edited by WesleyCrusher (Thu Jan 17 2013 11:24 AM)
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#961604 - Thu Jan 17 2013 11:38 AM Re: Zero challenge [Re: WesleyCrusher]
CmdrK Online   content
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Registered: Sun Jan 17 2010
Posts: 1825
Loc: Nevada USA
Wes, I think you're spending way too much time thinking about this. Or is it something you can't avoid? smile
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#961630 - Thu Jan 17 2013 02:35 PM Re: Zero challenge [Re: mdurnanj]
mehaul Offline
Forum Champion

Registered: Wed Feb 03 2010
Posts: 6368
Loc: Florida USA
Another tactic to acquire the "Zero" Badge is to come here and practice getting things wrong! he he he
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