Nury Vittachi is a witty journalist/writer who lives in HK.
I am inclined to listen to him.

AND NOW THE GOOD NEWS

By Nury Vittachi


There is a dangerous virus spreading through Hong Kong.

It is NOT atypical pneumonia.

It is panic.

All outbreaks of any high-profile pathogen or disease (cf the UK's
Mad Cow disease) have two major effects. A tiny proportion of people
are hit by the disease itself. A large number of people, organizations
and entire industry sectors are hit by the panic that accompanies it.

Yes, you should be careful and take all precautions as advised by your
medical advisor, but no, you don't have to panic and flee Hong Kong.

1. You don't have to stay at home. At the time of writing (first
week of April, 2003), more than 99.999% of people in Hong Kong are
completely free of the SARS virus.

2. An increase in numbers doesn't mean people in every apartment
block have it. The virus's growth pattern shows a tendency to remain
tightly clustered - for example in the Prince of Wales Hospital and
Amoy Gardens.

3. Ninety-nine people a day die of flu every day in the United States
alone. Of these 99, about 30 die of acute respiratory problems.
In Hong Kong, 16 people have died over a month.

4. In any large city of this size, there are hundreds of pneumonia
sufferers at any time, of which several dozen have some form of
atypical pneumonia.

5. Yes, the virus does mutate. But this doesn't necessarily mean it
continually gets more virulent. Scientists note that as SARS spreads,
it is significantly weakening from carrier to carrier.

6. The media may call it a killer virus, but the survival rate
among those hit in these clusters is 96%.

7. Yes, we all care about our children, but very few kids get it -
careful examination of lists confirms that victims tend to be
elderly people with a direct physical link to the clusters.

8. Contaminated places get clean by themselves.
The virus dies without a carrier. Some scientists estimate its life
as three hours, others say a little longer, but all agree it cannot
hibernate. In other words, you can even check into the Metropole
Hotel floor 9 without fear.

9. The virus is believed to die when the air temperature reaches
27 degrees C. One hot Hong Kong day could fry all traces of it on
exposed surfaces.

10. You can keep your air conditioner on in the office. Ward 8B in the
Prince of Wales Hospital shares an air conditioning system with the
infected Ward 8A. But there was not a single infection in 8B.

11. Many people assume the "growth model" of the virus will follow
sci-fi movie scenarios. Evidence suggests it is more likely to follow
the Guangzhou experience, where it spread for a few weeks and then
started to contract.

12. The flood of panicky emails from a variety of people, including
doctors who should know better, is not helpful. One email doing the
rounds is instructing people not to exercise,
for example. Panic creates muddleheadedness. Consider the facts above.
Hong Kong is our home.
Stay calm and stay healthy!

Nury Vittachi

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Well said Ren, There's been a couple of cases in the UK and already it's a major health hazard (well there has to be something else in the news apart from Iraq) but like you say since the cluster of deaths (very local to me) from human CJD there's been nothing in the news for about a year on any others.

The media always whips up hysteria about things like this....I should know, I work in it, in my humble way. For this reason. people won't allow their kids to play freely or walk to school. They also stay away from otherwise harmless food. And now this. In the college I work at, some people have come to visit from Newfoundland, and one of my colleagues thought they might be harbouring SARS because they thought it must be near Toronto. This illustrates my point beautifully.

At the last count I saw figures of 1000+ cases in China and Hong Kong .(from my latest book!) the population is 1,220,000,000 (estimated and growing 1997) it doesn't take a maths novice to see that's a very small proportion and compared to Asian Flu of 1957 is just a minor ailment.(should I add at the moment!)

I guy I work with was just over in Hong Kong visiting family with his wife and kids, and he said that about the only time you actually see people in masks is when the TV cameras are on. Of course it makes for really good video...if completely unrealistic.