This is the nationwide Zogby poll. Includes Bush, Kerry, Nader, Badnarik and Peroutka.

http://www.zogby.com/features/featuredtables.dbm?ID=135

Not that I am unhappy with the results shown by that poll, but it is of interest to read any third-party pollster's methods of data collection. Of particular interest in THIS poll, they do not poll Hawaii or Alaska at all, and of course, they only poll people with telephones. They do NOT say whether they poll people with only land-line phones, but that IS the case quite often. (Considering the movement of people, especially young people, to using only cell phones, like Cricket-type services, this can be a significant thing.)

In other polls, Gallup, for instance, only "likely voters'" results are included. A likely voter according to Gallup is one who is currently registered and has voted in the last 2 federal elections. And, they "weigh" the answers of people from different party affiliations differently, but the process is not particularly well-explained.

I think the only realistic poll of politics is an actual exit poll, performed at polling sites and of persons who have just voted.

I was just listening to the radio, and heard another point brought up about polls. They do not of course actaually poll a random sampling of the population, just a sampling of the population who are willing to be polled. Thus, the opinions of shy people, of people who are not home in the evening (peak polling time) and people who are too busy to talk right now, are not represented.

We were discussing this the other night and the family has done its civic duty in terms of jury duty and other things. Two of us had been polled and I had the 'privilege' of the Gallup poll when I lived the midwest.
However, as the two ladies above stated, with small kids clamoring for their dinner and hanging on to your legs, it becomes hard to concentrate and then, I remember having to hang up after answering all but the last question!
So thought you have nothing against participating and in fact, wouldn't mind your voice being heard, these guys call you at inconvenient moments and in the barrage of telemarketing calls, get lost by the wayside.

You all bring up excellent points. I think Lothruin summed it up nicely: "I think the only realistic poll of politics is an actual exit poll, performed at polling sites and of persons who have just voted."