This is a great question to ponder, and really, only time will reveal the truth. However, I think there are a few common elements that help a band stand the test of time:
1) Songs with subject matter that most people can relate to (i.e.: love and loss).
2) Successful diversity - Meaning, one-trick ponies don't usually last. There are a few exceptions to this. Great bands like the Ramones and AC/DC use(d) the same formula over and over and managed to keep a strong following.
3) Artists who show respect for their predecessors and their fans.
Then there are those bands that weren't quite popular early on, then more or less sneak up as influential to other bands. Bands like Led Zeppelin, Black Sabbath, Pink Floyd (who had been performing for years before gaining international popularity).
Another element is how quickly information can travel these days. Aside from word of mouth and live performances, the aforementioned bands could only gain mass exposure if radio stations agreed to play their music. Now there are many more communication options, especially with the internet.
There are some acts in recent culture that I could predict will be popular (or at least influential) 20-30 years from now. Check back and see if I'm right
- Nine Inch Nails
- Stone Temple Pilots
- Foo Fighters
- Metallica
- Oasis
- Coldplay
- Green Day
- System of a Down
- Phish
- Tool
- Radiohead
- Clay Aiken (Just kidding)
There are probably plenty that I've missed, and I have to limit my opinion to "Rock" music, since I don't follow Hip-Hop very closely.