Subject: Blackjack tips
Posted by: brm50diboll
Date: Jul 25 17
Since Casinos and Gambling are in the Entertainment category, I thought I'd start this thread for some tips on one of my, err hobbies. Nothing too serious as I'm an infrequent low stakes player.
Posted by: brm50diboll
Date: Jul 25 17
Since Casinos and Gambling are in the Entertainment category, I thought I'd start this thread for some tips on one of my, err hobbies. Nothing too serious as I'm an infrequent low stakes player.
74 replies. On page 1 of 4 pages. 1 2 3 4
brm50diboll 
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First the perfunctory disclaimer: Even well-played blackjack has a small house edge (leaving aside card counting, which I don't want to get into right away), so the true optimal strategy for blackjack is not to play at all. Having said that, minimizing the house edge is a well-documented mathematical field with many excellent books and internet sites devoted to the subject. Choosing the right game is probably most important. Not all blackjack games are equal. Las Vegas, because of its multitude of casinos and the competition they bring, is probably the best place to look for good games. Such games, played just with "basic strategy" offer a house edge of less than 1%, which is much better than most casino games, particularly the slots. OK, a tip: Do not take insurance unless you are a talented card counter who knows what he/she is doing. Insurance is a sucker bet, which is why casinos offer it. It has a 7.6% house advantage. And that includes *any* starting hands - any. Don't take even money on blackjacks vs dealer ace, and don't insure hard 20s. All recommendations made by me are long term statistically verified. Yes, in the short run, you *will* have hands where your blackjack pushed against the dealer's because you didn't take even money, but the 3:2 payout on clear blackjack wins overcomes the occasional push in the long run when you don't take even money. Reply #1. Jul 25 17, 2:30 PM |
rayven80
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The easiest part is the hardest to actually do. Remember you don't have to get 21, sometimes you don't even have to get close. You just have to be closer than the dealer without going over. Reply #2. Jul 25 17, 3:08 PM |
| brm50diboll
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Many people, however, are afraid to hit "stiff" hands (hard 12 through 16) because of fear of busting. Some people even advise never hitting hard 15 or hard 16. According to basic strategy, there are reasons for standing on some stiff hands, but hitting actually provides the long term statistical advantage in the designated cases, which are: Stand on all stiff hands versus dealer's 4-6. Hit all stiff hands versus dealer's 7-A (Even the worst possible starting hand from a player perspective, hard 16 versus dealer 10, where hitting is very slightly favored over standing (neglecting card counting), but surrender is actually the best play if that option is available, but it rarely is.) For the case of a stiff hand versus the dealer 2 or 3, the correct play is to hit hard 12, but stand on 13-16. I mentioned surrender. Few casinos offer it, but if you find one that does, it has a few (very few) advantages to the knowledgeable player. Most players who see that option use it way too much. It is only mathematically advantageous for the absolute worst starting hands, the ones with less than a 25% chance of winning, namely, hard 16 versus dealer 9,10, or A (most of the advantage is versus 10) and hard 15 versus 10. Neglecting card counting, one should play out and not surrender other poor hands, such as hard 15 versus dealer A, where hitting has a 26% of winning. Terrible, but still better than surrender or standing, statistically. Reply #3. Jul 25 17, 3:24 PM |
daver852
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You don't really have to learn or memorize anything. Just carry a pocket card showing optimal strategy, follow it, and you can reduce the house edge to about 0.5%. Reply #4. Jul 25 17, 8:11 PM |
| brm50diboll
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Very true. There are minor differences in basic strategy depending on specific casino rules, but nothing particularly earth-shattering. But for math-obsessed wonks like me, getting into those trivial details that may net 0.05% edge here or there is something I may like to get into. A web site that gets deep into the statistical details of variants of blackjack (as well as many other gambling games) which I am particularly fond of is The Wizard of Odds. To find it, you can google it, or drop the "the", make all letters lowercase, remove the spaces, and add .com to the end. Extremely detailed, and gets into the fine points which I want to eventually get into. On my home computer I also have a blackjack simulation program which can run thousands of hands of blackjack in a few seconds and played by whatever parameters you care to set it at, (including various card counting techniques) and then statistically analyze all the results. It is called Casino Verite, and I've had many hours of fun with that. Of course, I'm also capable of explaining things at a much more basic, even beginner level. For example, readers may not know what I mean when I say a hard 16 versus a soft 16. A hard hand is a hand that either does not contain an ace, or, if it does, the ace(s) must count as 1 point. Examples of hard 16s are 10-6, 9-7, or 8-5-A-2, but *not* 8-8 (because 8-8 is a splittable pair). Hard 16 is a terrible hand to have! Soft 16s, on the other hand, contain aces which count as 11 and therefore cannot bust on a single hit. Examples of soft 16s include A-5, A-A-4, etc. Soft 16s are much better starting hands than hard 16s. One of the things I want to do is not just recite basic strategy (you're right, daver, any little card can do that), but *explain* the non-intuitive plays and debunk common misconceptions. Reply #5. Jul 25 17, 10:21 PM |
| daver852
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I've never understood the popularity of blackjack. To me, it's the most boring game in the casino. Reply #6. Jul 26 17, 8:27 AM |
13LuckyLady
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My Blackjack tip...don't play against me. It's the ONE time, other than life, when I INTEND to win! Daver, people are fascinated by all sorts of things. Have you considered asking others why Blackjack is so interesting to them? It's quick....much like Duel and we all know I LOVE Duel! Reply #7. Jul 26 17, 11:45 AM |
| 13LuckyLady
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Brian, playing cards with you would be fun! Reply #8. Jul 26 17, 11:46 AM |
| brm50diboll
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I don't know, except it's so mathematical. I hate most casino games except the ones I can analyze the statistics on my own for: blackjack and video poker. Most video poker games have too high a house edge though, but in Vegas, there are a few that actually have optimal paybacks greater than 100%. Casinos can get away with offering such games because most players don't know the correct strategy. My favorite video poker game is standard Vegas Deuces Wild (with 5:1 payout on four of a kind, which is critical, among others. Too many games short players with only a 4:1 payout on four of a kind.) But I digress. One thing I really enjoy about blackjack, and it is very rare but it has happened to me several times and it's amazing when it happens, is resolution and doubling after splitting. Here's a scenario that has really happened for me at a casino: My original hand is 8-8. The dealer shows a 6, his weakest upcard. I split the 8s and get another 8. I resplit and get a fourth 8. I resplit again (four hands is max) and draw a 3 to the first 8. I double down and get a 10 for a 21 on the first hand. On the second hand, I get an ace to my 8 and stand on my 19. On the third hand, I get a 2, double down and get an awful 6 for a 16. On the fourth hand, I get a 10 and stand on the 18. The dealer turns up his hole card for a 10, giving him a 16. He then hits his 16 (as he is required to do) and gets another 10 to bust. I win the equivalent of six bets on my resplit and doubled after split hand. Everybody at the table congratulates you when you win a spectacular hand like that. (Of course, I've also had rare such hands where the dealer made 21 and I lost six bets, but those are even rarer, because the odds really do favor the player in the scenario I gave.) Reply #9. Jul 26 17, 11:58 AM |
| brm50diboll
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I see Lucky Lady, that you posted in there as I was posting a long post. To you I make a (not-so-obscure) movie reference: A tip: Never play cards with a man whose nickname is "Doc". *cough,cough* (My best Val Killer impersonation from Tombstone.) Now if that hasn't scared you away, then I'm your huckleberry. *cough, cough* Reply #10. Jul 26 17, 12:02 PM |
| brm50diboll
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Val Kilmer. Dad gum autocorrect! Reply #11. Jul 26 17, 12:04 PM |
| 13LuckyLady
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Val Killer? (giggling)....can't post....that is funny! Be back...lololo Reply #12. Jul 26 17, 12:28 PM |
| 13LuckyLady
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(calming down....) Would you like a cough drop, Doc? Blackjack it is! My deck or yours? Reply #13. Jul 26 17, 12:35 PM |
| brm50diboll
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Unfortunately, single deck blackjack is almost unheard of nowadays. Most games are from an eight deck shoe. Ever since Edwin Thorp wrote "Beat the Dealer" explaining card counting the casinos have been taking the fun out of the game. What I would give for a time machine that could take me back to 1958 Vegas. I could find one of the few casinos back then that wasn't mob-controlled and clean up with some single deck blackjack. We better use your deck, Lucky Lady. Mine has a few "extra aces". Reply #14. Jul 26 17, 12:45 PM |
| 13LuckyLady
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After checking our games cabinet, I discovered multiple sets of cards. If there is no objection to an interesting collection of card 'backs', the game could continue.... For such an event as you described, I would love to attend. The atmosphere....as pleasing as the finest champagne! Reply #15. Jul 26 17, 1:55 PM |
| brm50diboll
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I am, of course, willing to answer any relevant questions to this thread, but if anyone has read my other threads, then you know that if I'm not asked any questions, I'll just ramble on about whatever I want to discuss anyway. So today I think I'll talk a bit about the somewhat esoteric art of splitting pairs. Let's pick a specific example: 9-9. Splitting 9s has a rather unusual basic strategy associated with it. The strategy is to split 9s against dealer 2-6, 8, and 9, but *not* against the dealer 7, 10, or A. For 7, 10, or A the correct play is to stand on the 18. Seems a bit odd at first glance, especially the 7. After all, 7 is a weaker dealer upcard than 8 or 9, so if it is appropriate to split 9s against the 8 or 9, why not the 7? The key is to understand the 18 correctly. Many players consider the 18 a good hand. Actually, against all dealer upcards overall, a player 18 loses slightly more hands than it wins. So 18 is *not* actually a strong hand. It is average, at best, and there are good reasons for sometimes trying to improve an 18, be it splitting 9s or hitting or doubling down on an A-7 (which I'll talk about someday later.) Since dealer 2-6 are weak upcards, splitting 9s against them makes sense as it puts up more money in a situation where the player has a distinct advantage, since a 9 is a good start for a hand. But why not split 9s against a 7? Well, the 18 is actually a strong hand against the dealer 7, since the dealer is unlikely to make 18 or better starting from a 7, statistically. A player 18 will win against the dealer 7 most of the time, and splitting the 9s here risks a stiff hand against a dealer upcard (the 7) that will only result in a dealer bust a mere 26% of the time. The numbers in simulations clearly show a player is better off standing and not splitting the 9s against the dealer 7. But standing on 18 against 8 or 9 is a probable loser, and the player benefits by splitting the 9s in an effort to get to a stronger final hand than just the 18. Why stand on 18 against the 10 or A then? Well, in those cases, the player is likely to lose whether he splits the 9s or not. It doesn't make sense to put more money at risk by splitting if the potential improvement in your hand will not be enough statistically to overcome the dealer's very strong 10 or A upcard. So here you stand, expecting to lose one bet rather than risk losing two by splitting. Splitting 9s is not something that comes up a lot, but I think it is fun when the right situation for it comes along. Statistically, the best card to get on a split 9 is an A (for a 20), but I enjoy getting the 2 (for an 11), because then I can double down after splitting, always a fun play (though not entirely without risk.) Reply #16. Jul 28 17, 12:58 AM |
| brm50diboll
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Correction: in post #14, I said Edwin Thorp. The correct name is Edward O. Thorp. Thorp (still living) is a mathematician and the father of card counting in blackjack. Math is fun! Reply #17. Jul 28 17, 1:37 AM |
| brm50diboll
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Legends of Bad Blackjack play Part I Tip: NEVER stand on Soft 17 17 is a standing hand, right? OK. Standing hands are good, so you should stand on Soft 17 because it's a good hand, right? NO, NO, a thousand times NO! If Soft 17 was a good hand, then why do many casinos require the dealer to hit Soft 17? Soft 17 is a poor hand and if you find a casino that requires dealers to stand on *all* 17s, including soft 17, it is to the player's advantage, about 0.3%, almost. To understand why Soft 17 should *never* be stood upon, let's first look at its evil twin, hard 17. Hard 17 is a bad hand. Almost as bad as the stiff hands, hard 12 through hard 16, actually. You stand on hard 17 not because it is a good hand, or even an average hand, but simply because the risk of busting when hitting hard 17 is just too high! Hard 17 statistically loses against all dealer upcards a majority of the time except for the dealer's weakest, the 6, and, even against the 6, hard 17 barely breaks above a 50% win rate. Against the dealer's A, hard 17 is horrible, almost (but not quite) to surrender level. (In the odd BJ variant called Spanish 21, Hard 17 should actually be surrendered against the dealer's A, but I don't want to get sidetracked as Spanish 21 is a very different game from standard BJ.) Now for a totally politically incorrect and sexist joke to help you remember why hard 17 is a bad hand: Hard 17 is called the mother-in-law hand. Why? (You asked for it.) You want to hit it, but you can't. Soft 17, if stood upon, would be just as bad a hand as hard 17, but, unlike hard 17, you *CAN* hit soft 17, since soft hands can't bust with a single hit. Yes, you may convert your soft 17 to a stiff hand with a hit, but actually, stiff hands are only *slightly* worse than 17, and the chance for improving the hand outweighs this possibility. Basic strategy actually says double down on A-6 (a soft 17) against dealer 2-6 (the dealer weak cards, where the dealer bust rate exceeds 35%), but to HIT soft 17s (even with three or more cards) in *all* other situations. The *ONLY* situation where a player is justified in standing on soft 17 is when he/she had no opportunity to act; namely, they immediately lost because the dealer had blackjack. I hate to see players stand on soft 17 because "17 is a good hand" or "the dealer does it". Both are lousy answers that betray the player's ignorance of statistics. NEVER stand on soft 17. It is one of the worst plays in BJ and will cost you over 1% in house edge just by itself. In fact, in a future tip, I will explain why you shouldn't always stand on soft 18, either. Reply #18. Aug 03 17, 11:40 AM |
| 13LuckyLady
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"Now for a totally politically incorrect and sexist joke to help you remember why hard 17 is a bad hand: Hard 17 is called the mother-in-law hand. Why? (You asked for it.) You want to hit it, but you can't." Evolve or devolve...it's up to us....running away before a mod throws something in my direction.... Reply #19. Aug 03 17, 11:49 AM |
| brm50diboll
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Correction: multideck shoe BJ basic strategy says double down on A-6 against dealer 3-6 (not 2-6). In the case of player A-6 versus dealer 2, the basic strategy is to hit, not double down. But again, NEVER stand on soft 17. Reply #20. Aug 03 17, 11:52 AM |
74 replies. On page 1 of 4 pages. 1 2 3 4
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