The question is really speculative, and an interesting debate topic, but not one which has a factual answer. Even if it were defined more precisely so as to apply to team sports with progressive scoring, and maybe including untimed games (since a baseball game, for example, could be won by a hit off the final ball of the game either in the ninth inning or in extra innings), and requiring that the winning team had been trailing at the start of the last minute, still there is no valid basis for determining probability. One could make an estimate, if enough records were available, by determining for each sport the percentage of games that have been won in the last minute, and ranking them. This would produce a rough predictive probability, but it would have a large margin of error. And take an amazing amount of data collection!
Feb 13 2024, 3:44 AM